Marie Bouzkova vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Concerning second serve performance over the past six months, Sabalenka achieved a marginally higher win rate of 39.81% compared to Bouzkova's 39.56%. This stat is strongly linked to match outcomes.
• In return games, Bouzkova shows superiority by winning 55.31% of her opponent's second serve points, whereas Sabalenka secured 49.02%. Their effectiveness against first serves is also very close, with Bouzkova leading slightly at 31% to Sabalenka's 30.2%.
• Under pressure, Sabalenka proved better at saving break points, with a 53.37% success rate compared to Bouzkova's 44.75%, a crucial aspect for in-game betting decisions.
• Over the last year, Sabalenka excelled with an 84.15% match win rate, surpassing Bouzkova's 57.69%. This provides an overall head-to-head perspective favoring Sabalenka.
• Their preferred surface is Hard, where Sabalenka has a stronger track record, winning 74% of her matches, while Bouzkova has a 66% win rate.
• Sabalenka's participation in Masters series events has seen her win 82.61% of her matches, superior to Bouzkova's 66.67% win rate on the Main tour. The significance of event levels in evaluating these stats can't be understated.
• Previous encounters show Sabalenka leading with two wins to Bouzkova's one, also winning five out of seven sets in total.
• When examining deciding set predictions, Bouzkova edged Sabalenka by winning the only deciding set in their head-to-head history.
• Sabalenka has shown a propensity to win deciding sets, securing victory in 61% over the last year, compared to Bouzkova's 48%.
• Historically, Bouzkova has broken more frequently, with a 37.82% conversion of breakpoints versus Sabalenka’s 35.15%.
• Sabalenka tends to compete against higher-ranked opponents, with an average rank of 41.43, while Bouzkova faced opponents with an average rank of 100.48 over the past 12 months.

Editorial Prediction (July 2, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Aryna Sabalenka and Marie Bouzkova presents several competitive angles. While both demonstrate impressive second serve points, Sabalenka holds a slight edge.

Return game stats highlight Bouzkova's strength, especially against second serves, but Sabalenka's ability to save break points under pressure tilts the balance slightly in her favor.

Overall match win percentages heavily favor Sabalenka, emphasizing her stronger year-long performance compared to Bouzkova. Additionally, Sabalenka's experience at higher-level events indicates her preparedness for top-level competition.

Head-to-head history also leans towards Sabalenka. However, Bouzkova's ability to clinch crucial deciding sets cannot be ignored, though Sabalenka's overall superior deciding set record provides additional confidence.

Based on current stats and head-to-head performance, Aryna Sabalenka is positioned as the probable winner for their upcoming encounter.